tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-94401562024-03-23T11:05:53.736-07:00Peak Oil OptimistKnowing we're running out of fossil fuels. Believing we can kick the habit.Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comBlogger556125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-87840958592310660632015-10-28T07:11:00.001-07:002015-10-28T07:32:50.935-07:00Unretiring: Ars Technica's Almost Good Look At Renewable EconomicsSo, unretiring this blog for one post; don't think it'll be a habit, people. <a href="http://arstechnica.com/science/2015/10/for-the-future-of-solar-weve-got-the-tech-its-the-economics-stupid/"><i>Ars Technica</i> has a nearly good article on the economics of renewables</a> that is worth reading, mostly because it actually does some thinking about the realities on the ground instead of engaging in airy wishful thinking. For all the headline happy talk, at least the article is clear-eyed enough to recognize (but dramatically downplay) the real drawbacks of renewables: the capital and operational costs needed to keep 24/7 power going. They identify two "apocalyptic" situations for utilities involving renewables, the first being the<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq"><b>Consumer grade death spiral:</b> Right now, given the right incentives, consumer photovoltaic installations can pay off in the long run. But there's a big up-front investment and a long payoff time. Though various leasing agreements have been developed that take some of the burden off consumers, the high costs and long payback act as a large barrier to adoption.<br />
<br />
But if the costs of electricity rise a bit—something that could be catalyzed by the push for solar at the utility level—then these barriers get lower, potentially driving more consumers to install their own hardware. That would force utilities to try to make the same amount of money from fewer customers, which means raising rates. And so the cycle begins, as the higher rates drive even more consumers to install their own hardware.</blockquote>This is <i>mostly</i> a problem where net metering is involved. If you expect the retail price to equal the wholesale price of electricity, this is a demand for frictionless markets. This does not now nor will it ever exist; the real costs of operating a grid do not vanish simply because some people use a more virtuous energy source. (Side lesson: if you wish to truly "go off the grid", do so, but be prepared to pay for backup storage when you do.) The <a href="http://www.energyandpolicy.org/the_campaign_against_net_metering_alec_and_utility_interests_next_attack_on_clean_energy_surfaces_in_arizona">greens howling about an extra $5/month</a> as a separate maintenance fee most likely haven't seen nothin' yet.<br />
<br />
Part the next:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq"><b>Grid-scale death spiral:</b> The other potential apocalyptic situation that utilities face is caused by things like California's push for renewables. They take place against the backdrop of a very slow growth in demand in the US; the US Energy Information Agency estimates that demand will grow at a <a href="http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=16071">rate of less than one percent</a> for decades. While that still entails a regular construction of new electricity sources as old hardware is retired, those requirements are pretty easily met. "Even with plant turnover," Kannberg told Ars, "you're looking at maybe another two percent a year of additional generation requirements. So you only have three or four percent required to meet load and plant replacement. Part of the challenge with some of the renewables is that we're adding them at a rate that is far in excess of four percent or five percent in some regions. And that's already initiating a reduction in the utilization of conventional generation."<br />
<br />
That will only get worse as the push for 50 percent kicks into gear, which means that the electricity generated by new renewable hardware ends up competing for customers with existing fossil fuel based hardware. The renewables have a key advantage in this competition. Fossil fuel plants must have the electricity they sell cover the cost of the fuel burned to create it. <b>Once built, renewables get their electrons nearly for free. As a result, they can <i>always</i> undercut the price of electricity generated by fossil fuel plants.</b></blockquote>Here, they fall into a trap that is a frequent pitfall for renewable proponents: the cost of fuel is not the same thing as the cost of operation of the grid. That is, to be honest, either the cost of storage (and its operation) has to be factored in to the cost of renewables, or the capital/operation cost of the standby power needed when the sun is down or the wind is calm. <br />
<blockquote>The net result is that fossil fuel plants are going to be sitting idle more of the time. This isn't a huge problem from an engineering perspective. Natural gas plants can be brought back online as needed (although coal can't), and time spent idle means significantly lower maintenance costs, which largely offsets the lack of business.<br />
<br />
But those facilities were built with expectations in mind (and ledger books) about when they'd return a set amount of cash to their owners. To meet those expectations on fewer hours of operation, the only real option is to charge more when power from these plants is needed. Which makes renewable alternatives more appealing, and that will drive further construction.</blockquote>This is true only if we draw a line around renewables and absolve them of responsibility for operating 24/7. That renewable advocates pull this stunt silently — something we also frequently see when power and energy get conflated — shows they are more animated by considerations other than the engineering aims of the electric grid, and in fact are at times openly hostile to them. There are several points worth raising here:<br />
<ol><li> The cost of renewables has to include operational and capital costs of other sources when the sun goes down or the wind is still. Or,</li>
<li> Include the cost of storage for surpluses generated during peak availability.</li>
<li> Even if you don't build new capacity, existing generating capacity has capital return costs that need to be met, meaning the price those sources charge the grid have to go up to make up for it. (Ars does get this one right.)</li>
<li> Anyone telling you renewables harness "free" energy conveniently forget there are real maintenance and operational costs associated with renewables — and green advocates (and even engineers) are terrible at estimating how much these will be. For instance, <a href="http://www.kcet.org/news/redefine/rewire/solar/concentrating-solar/ivanpah-solar-plant-owners-want-to-burn-a-lot-more-natural-gas.html">the Ivanpah solar plant will require five times as much natural gas</a> (yes, it's dependent on fossil fuels!) as was initially designed.</li>
</ol>But at least <i>Ars</i> is looking at these issues. I all too frequently read terrible stories on these topics that pull the "enough energy to power X homes" dodge, which confuse power and energy, and are frequently PR efforts from frauds. It is, indeed, the economics, stupid. While I haven't done anything like a systemic study on the matter (and it would be too huge to really attempt, I fear), it seems to me dollar costs can be used as a rough proxy for energy costs. If someone tells you they need to throw those costs elsewhere, run.Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-20088309100438510732010-05-23T20:43:00.000-07:002010-05-23T20:44:46.839-07:00And So, Good NightI haven't blogged on any topic here in quite some time. This is a combination of fear and disinterest; this is a cobweblog from here out. Good night.Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-84250835996265179392009-07-22T07:45:00.000-07:002009-07-22T07:52:49.386-07:00An Interesting Interview With Dick Weir Of EEStor<a href="http://www.cleanbreak.ca/2009/07/21/30-plus-minute-interview-with-dick-weir-of-eestor/"><i>GreenLiving</i></a> has Yahoo video (not video, but all audio) of an interview with Dick Weir of EEStor, in what has to be the longest interview I've ever seen him do. Weir is claiming production in 2010 now; he's missed important deadlines before, so let your skepticism be your guide there. He also addresses (or claims to) a <a href="http://theeestory.com/topics/2077">long-form post at TheEEStory.com</a> outlining why the paramagnetic phase of the proposed barium titanate dielectric cannot do what he says.Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-1041221622179616242009-02-13T10:41:00.000-08:002009-02-13T10:50:35.561-08:00Rick Nebel On The Limited Results<a href="http://www.talk-polywell.org/bb/viewtopic.php?p=16216#16216">For what it's worth</a>:
<blockquote>
Here's what we know and what we don't know:
<p>
1. We don't have the spatial resolution of the density to see if the cusps are quasi-neutral on the WB-7<br>
2. In one-D simulations the plasma edge (which corresponds to the cusp regions) is not quasi-neutral. Therefore, if the cusps are quasi-neutral it must be a multidimensional effect.<br>
3. Energy confinement on the WB-7 exceeds the classical predictions (wiffleball based on the electron gyro-radius) by a large factor.
<p>
Our conclusion is that both the wiffleball and the cusp recycle are working at a reasonable level.
</blockquote>
Also getting press elsewhere (<a href="http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/69423/">Glenn Reynolds</a> among others).Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-42015425348767234242009-01-16T22:59:00.000-08:002009-01-16T23:00:22.283-08:00Hugo Chavez Changes His Mind<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/15/world/americas/15venez.html?_r=1&hp">Hahahaha</a>:
<blockquote>
President Hugo Chávez, buffeted by falling oil prices that threaten to damage his efforts to establish a Socialist-inspired state, is quietly courting Western oil companies once again.
<p>
Until recently, Mr. Chávez had pushed foreign oil companies here into a corner by nationalizing their oil fields, raiding their offices with tax authorities and imposing a series of royalties increases.
<p>
But faced with the plunge in prices and a decline in domestic production, senior officials have begun soliciting bids from some of the largest Western oil companies in recent weeks — including Chevron, Royal Dutch/Shell and Total of France — promising them access to some of the world’s largest petroleum reserves, according to energy executives and industry consultants here.
<p>
Their willingness to even consider investing in Venezuela reflects the scarcity of projects open to foreign companies in other top oil nations, particularly in the Middle East.
</blockquote>Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-67831399910773719282008-12-24T10:08:00.000-08:002008-12-24T10:11:14.898-08:00Mark Goldes, Where Are You?Because your <a href="http://peakoiloptimist.blogspot.com/2008/01/useful-bs-detector-kit.html#6463504967297212742">ultraconductors</a> <a href="http://www.magneticpowerinc.com/index.html">still haven't shown up</a>.
<p>
How would you like your crow served?Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-18959825893362910152008-12-22T07:38:00.000-08:002008-12-22T07:38:05.582-08:00EEStor's New PatentThere's so much noise — <a href="http://yro.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=08/12/22/0238227"><i>Slashdot</i></a>, at <a href="http://theeestory.com/topics/934"><i>The EEStory</i></a>, <a href="http://gm-volt.com/2008/12/21/eestor-is-granted-a-new-patent-on-the-eesu-offering-extensive-detail-on-its-design-and-function/">gm-volt.com</a>, and <a href="http://bariumtitanate.blogspot.com/2008/12/eestor-issued-new-patent.html"><i>EEStor Ultracapacitors</i></a> — that it's hard to understand the major issues being bruited in the new <a href="http://theeestory.com/files/ESSTOR_US07466536B1.pdf">U.S. Patent (7466536B1)</a> filed recently by EEStor. Perhaps the most interesting part of this comes in this <a href="http://theeestory.com/topics/951"><i>The EEStory</i> discussion thread</a> about the patent. <a href="http://theeestory.com/posts/13636">This post in particular</a> interests me (all lower-case typing is a direct quote):
<blockquote>
i found it interesting that the patent describes taking the alumina and PET materials down to -150 degrees C! i'm no expert, but i doubt seriously that's a common practice. that's very cold.
<p>
maybe that's the magic fairy dust everyone has missed -- the use of extremely cold temperatures to modify the property of the materials in order to make this seeming violation of physics work.
<p>
i've been following eestor for years now and i don't think they've done it, but i do find the mention of ultra cold temperatures used in manufacturing very, very, very interesting. is the low temperature something that would have been done in weir's previous career in hard drives?
<p>
as others have said, r. weir is either one of the boldest liars out there or he's an extremely shrewd inventor.
</blockquote>
We still, of course, don't even have a demonstration unit released, and there's plenty of good reason to be skeptical. But if they're liars, they're certainly keeping their mouths awfully closed, an awfully long time. It's entirely possible that there were design problems they assumed they could skate past that have proven more problematic than they first thought. It may not ever work, but that is not the same thing as a scam.Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-65698423068455251442008-12-16T19:57:00.000-08:002008-12-16T20:00:49.419-08:00Well, It's Something: Polywell Review Panel Gives Thumbs-UpFrom <a href="http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/12/16/1718741.aspx">Alan Boyle's <i>Cosmic Log</i> blog</a>, the panel reviewing the results of Dr. Nebel's recent Polywell work:
<blockquote>
An EMC2 team headed by Los Alamos researcher Richard Nebel (who's on leave from his federal lab job) picked up the baton from Bussard and tried to duplicate the results. The team has turned in its final report, and it's been double-checked by a peer-review panel, Nebel told me today. Although he couldn't go into the details, he said the verdict was positive.
<p>
"There's nothing in there that suggests this will not work," Nebel said. "That's a very different statement from saying that it will work."
<p>
By and large, the EMC2 results fit Bussard's theoretical predictions, Nebel said. That could mean Polywell fusion would actually lead to a power-generating reaction. But based on the 10-month, shoestring-budget experiment, the team can't rule out the possibility that a different phenomenon is causing the observed effects.
<p>
"If you want to say something absolutely, you have to say there's no other explanation," Nebel said. The review board agreed with that conservative assessment, he said.
<p>
The good news, from Nebel's standpoint, is that the WB-7 experiment hasn't ruled out the possibility that Polywell fusion could actually serve as a low-cost, long-term energy solution. "If this thing was absolutely dead in the water, we would have found out," he said.
</blockquote>Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-37440271556191656612008-10-30T12:06:00.000-07:002008-10-30T21:50:03.789-07:00Polywell Gets Another Crack?A <a href="https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=8e59e11465cc26d4079ac9201008f960&tab=core&_cview=0&cck=1&au=&ck=">couple</a> <a href="https://www.fbo.gov/?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=3ea62e93d6aa0220c884d316af43c00b&tab=core&_cview=0">contracts</a> would make it appear that the Navy has decided to pursue Robert Bussard's Polywell design. <a href="http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2008/10/new-iec-fusion-experiment-contract.html">M. Simon has more at <i>Power And Control</i></a>.
<p>
<b>Update:</b> Apparently <a href="http://www.talk-polywell.org/bb/viewtopic.php?p=11400#11400">stay-alive funding</a> until the Navy decides what to do.Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-84216554516902048642008-10-20T17:26:00.001-07:002008-10-20T17:27:54.992-07:00Administrivia: Fixing Archive LinksArchive link pages on the sidebar are s-l-o-w-l-y getting fixed. I know, I haven't posted in months, but that much less impetus to fix it ... there have been a couple stories about EEStor that have interested me recently, but I'm actively ignoring this blog, mostly.Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-73222158321852183902008-07-19T11:57:00.000-07:002008-07-19T12:00:59.676-07:00Purdue Panel Finds Misconduct By TaleyarkhanWell, <a href="http://www.physorg.com/news135611730.html">this isn't good</a>:
<blockquote>
The Purdue committee, which includes representatives from other schools, said that in a follow-up paper published in 2006 in Physical Review Letters, Taleyarkhan falsely claimed that his 2002 work had been independently confirmed.
<p>
The panel also found that in a pair of 2005 papers, Taleyarkhan added another person as an author even though that researcher did not substantially contribute.
<p>...<p>
<b>"From small beginnings there developed a tangled web of wishful thinking, scientific misjudgment, institutional lapses and human failings," the committee wrote. "Each strand could have been resolved separately, but knitting them together produced a crisis."</b>
</blockquote>Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-66400043331638806842008-01-22T17:59:00.000-08:002008-01-22T18:02:23.149-08:00Lockheed Mumbles Something About EEStorLockheed Martin supposedly <a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/Biztech/20090/">has signed an agreement with EEStor</a> to deliver products, though the former company won't admit to having seen even so much as a prototype. Delivery is supposed to be at the end of the year. More: the article says that the ZENN car company is expecting production modules by mid-year. We'll see.Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-18151044792270344632008-01-17T22:45:00.000-08:002008-01-17T22:49:34.108-08:00R.A. Nebel On Plasma CalculationsR.A. Nebel <a href="http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/01/09/566532.aspx">writes in the comments section of the MSNBC thread</a>:
<blockquote>
In general, some types of plasma theories work pretty well and others not so well. Plasma theories work pretty well for calculating equilibria and global stability. Transport calculations and kinetic calculations are considerably more suspect. The thing that raises the red flags about the collisionality calculations is that when you look at the Chacon work he sees a big difference between square potential wells (as assumed by Nevins) and parabolic potential wells. I would not have expected that result, and that tells me that none of these results are truly "generic". I think this issue has to be resolved experimentally. That's not to imply that these calculations have no value. What they do tell you is that collisions on the boundary are beneficial (they remove angular momentum) while collisions in the core can be a problem. This, of course, was known by Bussard and Krall a long time ago. It's also possible to affect these collision rates by techniques like gas puffing into the boundary (i.e. introducing neutrals).
<p>
Also, I would like to thank M Simon, TallDave and their fellow bloggers for their continued interest in this technology. We appreciate that a great deal, but as you might imagine we have been a little too busy to communicate very much with the on-line people.
</blockquote>
It makes you wonder just how much could be accomplished with computers, or how little.Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-26403336051960876942008-01-10T23:23:00.000-08:002008-01-11T10:35:31.695-08:00First Plasma In Los AlamosIt's really hard what to know what to say about <a href="http://iecfusiontech.blogspot.com/2008/01/wb-7-first-plasma.html">this</a> (<a href="http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/01/09/566532.aspx">MSNBC</a>). I hope for the best. It's not nearly enough. It may never be. I keep my fingers crossed.
<p>
<b>Update 1/11:</b> Corrected the title to reflect reality (s/Fusion/Plasma/).Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-41603279239268170212008-01-04T10:26:00.000-08:002008-01-04T10:26:52.688-08:00A Useful BS Detector KitIn the absence of useful and/or hopeful news, I stumbled onto a <a href="http://www.talk-polywell.org/bb/viewtopic.php?t=329">thread</a> a few days ago at talk-polywell.org in which the topic of discussion was <a href="http://superconductors.org/ultra.htm">alleged ultraconductors</a>, discovered and named by one Dr. Leonid Grigorov, Ph.D., Dc.S, formerly of the Polymer Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences. This led to the discovery that the company in the U.S. hyperbolically claiming to be on the verge of commercializing this remarkable discovery is also <a href="http://www.magneticpowerinc.com/index.html">one and the same as Magnetic Power, Inc.</a>, another of the zero-point energy loons. One of the useful things I did find, however, was a <a href="http://www.skepticforum.com/viewtopic.php?p=18425&sid=2f43e2b2216cdc4111cb3ce3d9f9b49c#p18425">post in the Skeptics Society Forum</a> detailing a useful BS detector kit, proffered by someone who claimed to work for venture capital. As a service to my reader(s?), I reproduce it forthwith:
<blockquote>
<br>I spent a lot of years in and around the venture capital industry. We developed our own baloney detection kits, tuned to use business plans and web sites to protect us from garbage businesses.
<br>
<br>Here are some questions, cribbed from that kit:
<br>1) Give me an authentic provenance to the idea. Show me the small steps others have made leading up to it.<br>2) Does it already have legitimate VC funding? (Military money is notoriously dumb, so it doesn't count.)<br>3) To whom does the principal give his or her time? (I would be much happier to see the AAAS than the American Antigravity folks: see <a href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/americanantigravity/message/64">http://groups.yahoo.com/group/americana ... message/64</a>.)
<br>4) Show me a credible reference client with a real application.
<br>5) If you can't show me a reference client, show me a working prototype. If it's on the verge of being commercialized, it must be working somewhere ... in a house, in a car, in a flashlight, in an iPod. Show me! You have to know I will bring a plague of experts to bear on this prototype, so it had better be GOOD.<br>
6) What is the history of ideas of the principals? What else are they involved in? (Zero Point Energy and energy from magnets are very, very bad signs. <!-- m --><a href="http://www.zpenergy.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=1357">http://www.zpenergy.com/modules.php?nam ... e&sid=1357</a><!-- m -->)<br>7) Look at the language. Is the development always "on the verge" of being ready? Is the "establishment" always "wrong", and the principal always right? Do they make the "Chinese market" logical fallacy? (Read "Art of the Start" ... not enough space here.) Watch out for firms that miss "whopper deadlines" (<a href="http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/000045.html">http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/000045.html</a><!-- m -->) by a mile.<br>
8) Show me peer-reviewed papers and presentations at mainstream scientific conferences by the principals. Better yet, show me serious scientists who respond to these papers. Papers by other people on collateral topics don't count. A paper on ZPE is not the same as a paper outlining an industrial process to capture it.<br>
9) Give me reproducibility. I won't look at a company with "secret processes"; if you can't show me how someone else can do it, I won't even get up from my desk.<br>
10) Give me competitors. If one person can do it, so can someone else. If one person is working on it now, you can bet two or three others are, too. You are defined by the quality of your cometitors, so the competitors had better look good to the baloney kit. If you compete with Boeing (even in a minor way), I am impressed. If you compete with Johann Bessler, I am much less impressed.
</blockquote>Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-84229154221502130312007-12-24T16:16:00.000-08:002007-12-24T16:22:28.339-08:00R-Squared's Top Energy StoriesOf course, my favorite on the <a href="http://i-r-squared.blogspot.com/2007/12/my-top-10-energy-stories-of-2007.html">list</a> is number 10:
<blockquote id=baq>
<strong>10. US Navy funds Bussard Fusion</strong><br><br><em>I think you have to include the US Navy funding Bussard Fusion in there:<br><br></em><a href="http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=3139619&C=navwar"><em>http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=3139619&C=navwar</em></a><br><br><em>Bussard died a couple months ago. I had really given up on fusion, but his work actually appears to have a reasonable change to work. Hopefully with more funding his team will be able to make it work.<br><br>Yes, Dr. Bussard's work will be carried on. First step is to construct </em><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polywell#Future_work" rel="nofollow"><em>WB-7</em></a><em> and replicate the results achieved with WB-6. Hopefully by the end of April 2008. If that works, then on to WB-8, and then an actual power generating plant.</em>
</blockquote>
Number 25 is also pretty interesting:
<blockquote id=baq>
<br>25. Cooper Pairs in insulators<br><br><a href="http://www.aip.org/pnu/2007/split/849-1.html"><em>http://www.aip.org/pnu/2007/split/849-1.html</em></a><br><br><em>One of the AIP's top stories of the year, this discovery may well help us reach a better understanding of superconductivity and insulators both. Superconductivity is of course a holy grail in energy research, and while this discovery doesn't directly lead to a room temp superconductor, it does add to the fundamental knowledge of material in the solid state.</em>
</blockquote>
Read the whole thing. It's good stuff.Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-30087460311302542072007-12-23T14:04:00.000-08:002007-12-23T14:12:14.034-08:00Interesting Bussard Obit In The New MexicanFrom the <a href="http://peakoiloptimist.blogspot.com/2007/12/congress-garrotes-iter.html#8496623588926175375">comments</a> in a prior post, <a href="http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2007/12/bussard-fusion-update.html"><i>Power And Control</i></a> points to an obituary of Robert Bussard <a href="http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2007/03/mr-fusion.html">in <i>The New Mexican</i></a>.
<p>
March to May. It's no overstatement to say, as M. Simon does, that "Civilization depends on it."Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-16532620243935577442007-12-21T14:39:00.000-08:002007-12-21T14:43:35.537-08:00First Product Rolls Off Nanosolar Manufacturing Line<a href="http://www.news.com/greentech/8301-11128_3-9835241-54.html?tag=nefd.top">News.com</a> has the news of Nanosolar producing their first product ever, which would be a big piece of news right there. (Also at the <a href="http://www.nanosolar.com/blog3/2007/12/18/nanosolar-ships-first-panels/">Nanosolar Blog</a>.) They claim $0.99/watt, which would be an unheard of price for solar. I've had my doubts about the company for a long time considering the hoopla, but if they're actually starting to deliver, well, hooray.Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-91921476911250762572007-12-19T08:16:00.001-08:002007-12-19T08:17:46.349-08:00Congress Garrotes ITER<a href="http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2007/1218/1">Zero dollar budget</a>. Sometimes, you just don't know what to say. (Via <a href="http://iecfusiontech.blogspot.com/2007/12/iter-budget-cut.html"><i>IEC Fusion Technology</i></a>.)Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-87540932103684567272007-12-12T14:19:00.000-08:002007-12-19T08:19:42.751-08:00BASF Patent For Barium Titanate UltracapacitorI wish I could recall where I saw this, but it sure is interesting. In addition to <a href="http://peakoiloptimist.blogspot.com/2007/09/eestors-ultracapacitor-that-isnt-just.html">EEStor</a>, BASF has filed for a patent on a barium titanate ultracapacitor design, <a href="http://www.freepatentsonline.com/7023687.html">number 7,023,687</a> filed on April 4, 2006. It will be interesting to see which, if any, of these competing designs ever make it to market. The more I read of EEStor (or, perhaps more accurately, the <i>less</i> I read, for they're notoriously quiet and <a href="http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/08/23/problems-at-zenn-and-eestor/">quietly slipping behind schedule</a>), the less inclined I am to believe they'll ever deliver a working product.
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<b>Update 12/17:</b> A lot of interesting and heated discussion at <a href="http://tyler.blogware.com/blog/_archives/2007/11/1/3328442.html?message"><I>Clean Break</i></a> about this, including an anonymous commenter who claims that energy stored is proportional to ½cV for non-linear dielectrics (which barium titanate supposedly is) rather than ½cV<sup>2</sup> for linear dielectrics. One sign — and I agree — we should look for is an actual lab measurement of the properties they believe they can meet. Supposedly this is <a href="http://www.wipo.int/pctdb/en/wo.jsp?wo=2006026136&IA=WO2006026136&DISPLAY=DESC">done</a> in <a href="http://www.wipo.int/pctdb/en/wo.jsp?wo=2006026136">WIPO patent WO/2006/026136</a>. Judging by the tone and arguments raised, it appears the same Anonymous (who may have been a former Maxwell Corp. employee) has been busy recently on <a href="http://gadgets.boingboing.net/2007/09/10/eestors-ultracapacit.html"><i>Boing Boing</i></a> as well.Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-54225857713255709662007-12-11T13:43:00.000-08:002007-12-11T13:44:34.313-08:00Tad Patzek Joins The Doomers<a href="http://petroleum.berkeley.edu/papers/Biofuels/OECDSept102007TWPatzek.pdf">Here</a> (PDF):
<blockquote>
I argue that with the current set of objective constraints
a continuous stable solution to human life cannot exist in the near-future, unless we
all rapidly implement much more limited ways of using the Earth’s resources, while reducing
the global populations of cars, trucks, livestock and, <b>eventually, also humans</b>.
</blockquote>
You first, Tad.Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-19609427233079251802007-12-11T13:16:00.000-08:002007-12-11T13:24:19.632-08:00Another IEC Fusion Company: Fusion Power GenerationA couple of Columbia grads are having a go at IEC fusion under the name <a href="http://www.fpgeneration.com/index.html">Fusion Power Generation</a>, and they're looking for funding. (Aren't we all?) Alex Klein used to work at EMC2; the meat of his approach can be found on their <a href="http://www.fpgeneration.com/id4.html#Q9">Q & A page</a>:
<blockquote>
9. What is different about our approach?
<p>
- By adding a particular type of magnetic field to a traditional spherical IEC machine, using a shaped electromagnet which doubles as the accelerating cathode, we are able to dramatically lower the losses of energetic ions that limit the efficiency of traditional designs.
<p>
- The magnetic field confines electrons to the reaction region at the center of the machine; electrons enter via secondary emission from the electromagnet itself. The electrons bulk-neutralize the positive charge of the ions, and allow the ions to converge to very high densities at the center: the density can be increased by a factor of 10,000 or more over conventional IEC devices.
<p>
- The magnetic field also creates space charge lenses at the openings of the electromagnet so-called magnetic mirrors, which in turn serve to continually refocus beams of ions as they pass in and out of the core. The focusing action can be made to exactly counteract the effect of Coulomb collisions between particles, and ions can re-circulate on stable orbits thousands of times through the device without colliding with a material structure, preventing the loss of energy that limits the efficiency of conventional machines. In this way the density will be greatly increased while the input power to the device will be reduced over conventional IEC machines.
<p>
- Both effects will help solve the problems that have limited previous IEC experiments' performance.
<p>
- With higher densities, electrons and ions can arrange themselves in alternating layers of positive and negative charge, forming "virtual electrodes" that can result in yet higher densities of ions at the center of the machine, and a trapped ion population that never intersects any material structure. Evidence for this effect has previously been observed in operating IEC machine.
<p>
- The addition of a small radio frequency modulation of the cathode voltage will drive trapped ions to converge simultaneously at megahertz rates in the very center of the machine at high energies, provided a harmonic electric potential can be maintained inside the cathode, an effect called POPS (Periodically Oscillating Plasma Sphere) that has been documented in previous IEC experiments.
<p>
- Pulsed operation will potentially raise the fusion rate still further.
<p>
- We have plans to extract ions which have developed non-ideal orbits at low energy, thus substantially increasing the energy confinement time and further raising efficiency.
</blockquote>
Good luck, guys. (Hat tip: <a href="http://www.talk-polywell.org/bb/viewtopic.php?p=2406#2406">jumartinez at talk-polywell.org</a>.)Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-71473877244128271632007-11-02T13:59:00.000-07:002007-11-02T14:10:52.102-07:00Followup: Global Resource Corp.With respect to an <a href="http://peakoiloptimist.blogspot.com/2007/07/plastics-to-oil-via-microwave.html">earlier story about Global Resource Corp.</a>, a company that claimed to have a means to convert plastic to crude oil: here's a <a href="http://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2007/07/global_resource_corporation.html">post</a> from a broker who seems to have lost his appetite for that company. Reading GRC's <a href="http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1128949/000101968707001125/globalresource_10k-123106.txt">most recent 10-K</a> should give you pause to consider; the chain of companies runs from EmailMortgage.com to Advance Medical Technologies Inc. to Carbon Recovery Corporation to the current configuration; and all of these have interlocking boards with no outsiders on them. Eww.Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-313378827884349202007-10-31T20:39:00.000-07:002007-10-31T20:41:50.584-07:00An "Earthquake" At The IEAI don't like writing about oil much, but <a href="http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/31/business/oil.php">this</a> amounts to the IEA hitting the panic button. Years too late, but ...
<blockquote>
LONDON: The rapidly growing appetite for fossil fuels in China and India is likely to help keep oil prices high for the foreseeable future - threatening a global economic slowdown, a top energy expert said Wednesday.
<p>
The unusually stark warning by Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, about the impact of Asia's emerging giants comes as the agency prepares to issue its influential annual report next week, which will focus on China and India.
<p>
In preparing the report, Birol said he had experienced "an earthquake" in his thinking.
<p>
"China plus India are going to dominate growth in the oil markets," Birol said during an interview at an oil industry conference. During the past 18 months, he noted, more than two-thirds of the growth in global oil demand came from China and India alone.
<p>
Demand for oil in China, he added, would eventually equal the entire supply from Saudi Arabia.
<p>
Partly as a result, he added, the annual report would predict that oil prices, now at about $93 a barrel, could remain at levels much higher than thought possible in the past. This, he said, heightened the risk of a serious global economic slowdown.
<p>
"We may see very high prices that will come to a level where the wheels may fall off," Birol said. "I definitely believe that if prices stay at these levels, there will be a slowdown of the global economy."
</blockquote>Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9440156.post-69973680963694236862007-10-30T16:01:00.000-07:002007-10-30T16:05:43.926-07:00Navy Funds EMC2 EffortsVia <a href="http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2007/10/its-official.html"><i>Power And Control</i></a>, the <a href="http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=3139619&C=america">Navy is funding EMC2 Corp.</a> to find out whether Bussard's claims about the WB-6 unit were correct, to the tune of $2M. The <i>Defense News</i> article's physics are a bit off, though:
<blockquote>
Bussard received nearly $2 million under a U.S. Navy contract in August to continue work on an inertial electrostatic confinement reactor he had developed. The reactor uses magnetic fields to confine electrons, whose negative charge causes protons and Boron 11 atoms to fuse. The fusion sets off a chain of reactions that produces electricity.
</blockquote>
The electrons actually <i>get in the way</i> of the process (see <i>brehmsstrahlung</i> radiation).Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18015219452269186971noreply@blogger.com