Monkeysign On Polysilicon Feedstock Shortages
Second, upon researching the industry projections, he posits a looming polysilicon shortage, caused in part by the industry's failure to invest in long-term contracts with its manufacturers. Some of this the industry believe there are other ways around this -- "recycling, inventory drawdowns, and silicon rerouted from the electronics sector." But given demand volatility, the industry wasn't going to create spare capacity when it wasn't immediately needed, so the result for solar manufacturers is steady or increasing prices for their principle raw feedstock, which will no doubt be passed on to end users.
Finally, he passes on this Wired article about the polysilicon shortage. It mentions that the polysilicon shortage could last until 2008, which would be how long it takes to build a new plant. In addition, we get the oftentimes standard wisdom that without federal subsidies, the solar industry is doomed.
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