USGS Optimistic About Worldwide Reserves

The ever-optimistic gang at the USGS says there's plenty of oil left, according to senior research geologist Peter McCabe. Most of the oil left is in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico and in foreign countries.

Using figures gleaned from USGS studies, he said cumulative oil production to the end of 2004 amounted to 952 billion bbl, which represents about 32% of the world total available reserves. Some 2,029 billion bbl, or 68%, he placed in a category labeled remaining recoverable oil.

McCabe broke this latter figure into five categories. The greatest volumes are included in "remaining reserves of conventional oil outside the US (859 billion bbl), undiscovered conventional oil outside the US (649 billion bbl), reserve growth in conventional fields outside the US (612 billion bbl)" and a box he called "future resources."

He pointed out that the amount of oil in most fields is underestimated and that over time additions can be made through stratigraphic and geographic extensions and better recovery factors. He added that initial estimates of reserves are often conservative for a variety of political and financial reasons.

Of course, there are other opinions...