Saturday, June 18, 2005

$60/Barrel Oil Presently

After climbing 6% over the last three days, oil prices are seen as going to $60/barrel and even higher, with a few dissenters.
"The insistence of many OPEC members that they are unable to prevent prices rising because of such refinery capacity shortages is likely to be taken as a further bullish signal by the market," Barclays Capital analysts wrote in a note Wednesday. "We expect $60 for crude to be breached in pretty short order."
Not everyone is a believer, though:
There are dissenters. Crude oil prices may be headed for a collapse, according to Morgan Stanley economist Andy Xie, in part because Chinese oil imports are weakening and massive investment has been made in alternative sources like liquefied natural gas and oil sands.

"The financial sector may have become dependent on the trading profits from oil," he wrote in a note Thursday. "As evidence accumulates over weakening demand and strong supply, I believe oil prices could collapse."

Update 6/19: More from Morgan Stanley's Andy Xie here.