What To Do With Surplus Wind?

Having built a lot of wind capacity in New Zealand, they're suddenly discovering its pitfalls, principally dispatch and distribution. Unless you can guarantee the wind will blow on a given day, you're still going to need some kind of dispatchable system to meet demand. (Thanks to bennewith (?) for the story link.)

NYT: Not-So-Secret Government Report Rebuts Saudi Future Production Plans

According to a piece in the New York Times, a secret U.S. government report has questioned Saudi abilities to increase their production.

... [D]oubts about Saudi Arabia's assurances of how much it can expand capacity - and for how long - have been raised in a secret intelligence report and in a separate analysis by a leading government oil adviser, according to a federal government official and the oil expert.

If those skeptical assessments are correct, the administration's hopes of increasing supplies would become still more difficult to fulfill. Washington's expectations about oil production from Iraq and the United Arab Emirates have proved overly optimistic, and the White House has failed to heed advice about both those countries from industry and government specialists, according to documents and interviews.

...

But when it comes to oil supply, American companies are limited: the countries that control most of the world's oil keep out private producers. So whatever the political repercussions from high energy costs, the administration has had little choice but to rely on the promises by Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, that it would continue to be the market's linchpin.

"There's always been this tenet on the American side," said Nawaf Obaid, a consultant to Saudi Arabia on energy security, "that the Saudis knew what they were doing and rightfully so."

But a senior intelligence official, who insisted on remaining anonymous because he was not permitted to speak publicly on the issue, said that the Saudi plans to increase production by nearly 14 percent in the next four years were not enough to meet global demand. Even the Energy Information Administration recently scaled back its expectations of how much more oil the Saudis could pump in 20 years.

More on this at Rigzone and at The Oil Drum. Update: ... and at Energy Outlook.

Sempra Agrees To Import Algerian Natural Gas To U.S.

Sempra Energy has signed an agreement to import Algerian natural gas to the U.S., according to Rigzone. The gas will be imported at the Lake Charles, LA Cameron terminal.

Bush About To Lose Red State America?

A good piece from the Engineer-Poet on Bush losing red state America to high gas prices. Can't come soon enough if you asked me.

Two From Knowledge Problem

And to think, only a few days ago, Lynne was apologizing for her lack of output... anyway, a couple Knowledge Problem posts worth noting. First, high prices are reducing demand for gasoline -- whoda thunk it? And second, "Rockets And Feathers", in which we learn that gasoline prices tend to spike up quickly but drift down slowly, and the driver for this is consumer behavior.

Matthew S. Lewis has a paper on the effects of consumer search behavior on retail gasoline prices [Link to PDF]. One result, obvious to me now that it has pointed out, is that retailer profit margins are higher when prices are falling (and consumers do less shopping around) and lower when prices are rising. So which business would you rather be in, on with low profits and unhappy customers or high profits and happy customers?

Ken Deffeyes And Peter Huber Slug It Out

In the pages of Time, two separate short essays, one by Kenneth Deffeyes (entitled "It's the End of Oil") and one by Peter Huber ("Oil Is Here To Stay"). Well, you know my opinion.

Administrivia: Contact

The lack of an e-mail address on the sidebar hasn't discouraged anyone from sending me missives, so I decided to make it a little easier by posting it explicitly, instead of chasing through my profile to my other blog. Enjoy.

Florida Drilling Deal Nears

Via peakoil.com, a St. Petersburg Times article about the arrival of a possible new deal allowing oil exploration off the Florida coast.

Several Florida Republicans said the plan goes a long way toward addressing their concerns with earlier versions of the deal: In addition to creating a 125-mile buffer around all of Florida, it would exempt some areas deemed key to military training in the Gulf, and it would allow companies that already hold leases for drilling within 100 miles of shore to trade for leases farther offshore.

It also would repeal the inventory of all offshore oil and gas reserves that was mandated in this summer's energy bill. Most of Florida's delegation had voted against the energy bill because of the inventory, and repealing it would sweeten the deal.

Daniel Colonnese: Parasite Or Bloodsucker?

Dear Mr. Colonnese:

I understand you think you have a trademark on the term "peak oil". Please buzz off. Officious sounding letters will be ignored.

Yours,

- R.

The Perfect Is The Enemy Of The Good

Here's a Technology Review article about wind power siting, bird kills, and how environmentalists are basically nuts for opposing every single one so vociferously:

By focusing so heavily on the not-astronomical wildlife losses, environmentalists risk coming across as nothing-is-good-enough whiners. Wind farms aren't going to provide all our power or solve the energy crisis. But it's good green power, and while it isn't perfect, it's better than what we have now. Opposition without proposing suitable alternatives isn't helping to solve the problem.

But environmentalists are nothing-is-good-enough whiners, and have been for ages.

Jeremy Siegel On Energy And The Future

I came across this one on Yahoo: a piece by Jeremy Siegel about oil production peaking. No time to really comment much on it, but it's a good piece from someone with a principally economic background who pretty much believes peak production is upon us.

Radio Open Source Peak Oil Thread, And Bruce Sterling

I got an e-mail a few days ago from Leslie Spoelstra at Radio Open Source about a call-in they were having on peak oil, and in particular was I interested in saying something about James Howard Kunstler, the millenialist John Brown of that particular theology? Nope, I offered; having had my say on the man, I don't think more is really warranted; I'm more interested in solving these problems than thinking about how we're all gonna die, thank you very much. Nonetheless, the resulting thread proved interesting, if only for Bruce Sterling's views on what he calls the Mad Max Scenario, complete with useful and amusing annotations. Enjoy.

UK Chief Scientific Advisor Says Rev Up The Nukes

Slashdot has a thread today on David King, the UK's chief science advisor, recommending new nuclear power for the future of energy production in that country:

He said nuclear power had "the safest record of all the power industries in the world". Professor King, who has previously said more nuclear power stations "may be necessary" to meet carbon dioxide emission targets, said the decline of North Sea oil and gas could tip the balance. "We need indigenous energy sources so we don't rely on imported gas from Russia. We're the last in the pipeline across Europe, so a second requirement is that we have a secure energy supply. Indigenous supplies include all renewables and nuclear."

Relying on renewable sources including wind, solar and wave power to replace lost capacity when existing nuclear power stations close would be a "remarkably tough challenge," he said. "At the moment 24% of energy on the grid comes from nuclear power; by 2020 that will be down to 4%. That gap of 20% is going to be very difficult to cover over the period 2010 to 2020 without new nuclear build."

NEI Nuclear Notes has a roundup post about nuclear activity in the UK.

Making More Efficient Nukes

I swear I read this someplace else, but NEI Nuclear Notes is as good a place as any. Researchers at Purdue have developed a uranium-beryllium compound that works better than uranium oxide, mainly because the UBe compound has better thermal characteristics. Uranium oxide tends to crack, forcing new fuel to be substituted before the cracked fuel rods are finished "burning".

Another GCC Item: Alberta Tar Sands Expansions

Catching up on my reading: the Canadian government is investigating a new refinery in Alberta in conjunction with a number of oil companies. Diesel will be shipped to the Canadian Pacific coast for export to Asian markets, and gasoline and other products will be shipped to the U.S. As usual, the GCC commenters conveniently forget that tar sands don't have to need natural gas to process. Sheesh.

Cheney Cabal "Hijacked US Foreign Policy"

Via Odograph, a Financial Times article about Dick Cheney and pals taking over U.S. foreign policy, according to accusations leveled by Colin Powell's right hand man, Col. Lawrence Wilkerson.

In a scathing attack on the record of President George W. Bush, Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, chief of staff to Mr Powell until last January, said: “What I saw was a cabal between the vice-president of the United States, Richard Cheney, and the secretary of defense, Donald Rumsfeld, on critical issues that made decisions that the bureaucracy did not know were being made.

“Now it is paying the consequences of making those decisions in secret, but far more telling to me is America is paying the consequences.”

...

“If you're not prepared to stop the feuding elements in the bureaucracy as they carry out your decisions, you are courting disaster. And I would say that we have courted disaster in Iraq, in North Korea, in Iran.”

About time somebody stood up and said something... sheesh. If the rumors of Cheney's pending resignation are true, it could be a complete collapse of the Bush administration, and not a minute too soon.

Ford Exec: Oil Production Peaking

Well, how about that? Via Green Car Congress, kinda late, what a surprise.

P.S. I tend to agree with one of the GCC commenters who says that the old "the U.S. isn't graduating any new engineers" bunk is pretty much smokescreen for shipping more skilled jobs overseas.

New Printable Solar Cell

There's a new printable solar cell that the Army, Air Force, and Textronics are using for the outside of tents to generate electricity, according to Technology Review. Konarka, the manufacturer, is working on improving efficiencies to the point where their product creates electricity comparable to the cost of fossil-fuel-based electricity.

White Paper: "The End of Cheap Oil, Once Again: Geopolitics or Global Economics?"

Not much new here, but a good read nonetheless.

Japan Gets Its Consolation Prize

As part of the deal for not getting ITER, the Japanese are getting the materials research center related to ITER.

Energy Prices Fall, But Supply Gaps "Remain Cavernous"

Oil and natural gas have both posted substantially lower prices today, according to UPI, with natural gas coming down to $13.375/MBtu, and gasoline to $1.835/gal. Analyst Paul Hornell of Barclays of London said much of this decline was due to overly pessimistic economic projections:

However, Paul Hornell with Barclays Capital Inc., London, said, "The supply-side deficits in the US oil product market remain cavernous, with demand effects dwarfed by the size of the product gaps."

In an Oct. 5 report, Hornell said: "The cumulative loss of crude oil output due to Katrina and Rita is now close to 50 million bbl and is likely ultimately to extend beyond 100 million bbl. We now expect the cumulative level of forgone refinery output to close in on 200 million bbl, with the cumulative reduction in gasoline output alone now expected to stretch towards 100 million bbl. The hit to the supply side is very significant, including the lowest US crude oil production for over 60 years, very low refinery runs, and a [year-over-year] reduction of over 1 million b/d in gasoline output. US oil inventories fell by 8.8 million bbl relative to their normal seasonal pattern in the latest week, taking oil product inventories below their 5-year average level. All that, and the greater part of the disruption to oil products supply is not yet in the data."

He concluded, "Given that toll of supply-side trouble, together with the even more alarming tightness in natural gas, one might then wonder as to why the fast money has been so quick to sell the energy complex. The reason is demand pessimism, based on some confusions about relative magnitudes and some overly downbeat views on the US economy. In reality, demand is not close to compensating for the supply-side deficits."

Goldston On ITER: "We Will Try And Kill That Project"

Disaster relief for Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, not to mention the damnable war in Iraq, have taken priority over ITER, it seems, with David Goldston, Chief of Majority Staff for the House Science Committee, saying ITER's current billion-dollar budget is "just not affordable", and if the price doesn't go down, "we will try and kill that project." Amazing.

Okay, Robert

Sure, I'll throw in a link. Here's another one of the cool kids.

Don't Bury It, Recycle

I got an e-mail from Joseph Somsel the other day pointing out this post about nuclear reprocessing. I don't have much to add; he's right on about the costs and the waste of Yucca Mountain. Thanks for the note, Joseph.

New Stuff: TheWatt.com

Thanks to Robert McLeod for pointing out theWatt.com, a Slashcode-ish site with daily energy news and such. Looks like they've just been hacked, which is too bad, as there were some good stories over the weekend I wanted to discuss. But anyway -- a couple for good measure:

• This mineweb.net story on the bull market in uranium, which predicts a speculative mania in the metal (and has some interesting comments both for and against peak oil).
• The IEA apparently has changed its tune and is now saying oil production from non-OPEC nations will peak around 2010.

A bunch more stuff, although it looks like they don't update much more often than I have been over the last few weeks.

Administrivia: Word Verification

Even though I've slowed posting down dramatically around here, I did want to let it be known that (a) I'm still around, and (b) I've been getting a ton of spam in the comment sections. This means I'm activating word verification for comments, which should hopefully be only a minor inconvenience.