The Other Kind Of Optimist, Part 2
Obviously I'm still bullish on oil -- an expression that seems to be at odds with my actual feeling regarding this -- especially considering the wildly differing views as to Chinese production. Deffeyes, of course, is so certain he's right that now he's changed his specialty to that of "historian". We'll see who's right, but my money's on Deffeyes.
Update: I wonder if Disinterested Party's analysis includes declines in Mexico's Cantarell field ($$$, again).
The worst two scenarios suggest a drastic decline in output to 875,000 barrels a day by the end of 2007 and to just 520,000 a day by the end of 2008. If such projections turn out to be correct, Mexico's overall oil exports would decline by about one million barrels a day -- equal to about 63% of its daily crude exports to the U.S. -- from its current 1.8 million.I wrote about this last year; one wonders how the Journal gets away with calling this an "exclusive" when the knowledge has been available for almost a year.