Monday, February 13, 2006

The Other Kind Of Optimist, Part 2

Hey, for only $99 you can get yer copy of this Newsmax report that tells us all how $40/barrel oil is about to make a big comeback. I wrote about one such back in May of last year based on a post in Disinterested Party, who to his credit went on to write followups in June, two in October, and most recently in January, all of which call for lower oil prices. $61/barrel oil made news because it had been so high for so long.

Obviously I'm still bullish on oil -- an expression that seems to be at odds with my actual feeling regarding this -- especially considering the wildly differing views as to Chinese production. Deffeyes, of course, is so certain he's right that now he's changed his specialty to that of "historian". We'll see who's right, but my money's on Deffeyes.

Update: I wonder if Disinterested Party's analysis includes declines in Mexico's Cantarell field ($$$, again).

The worst two scenarios suggest a drastic decline in output to 875,000 barrels a day by the end of 2007 and to just 520,000 a day by the end of 2008. If such projections turn out to be correct, Mexico's overall oil exports would decline by about one million barrels a day -- equal to about 63% of its daily crude exports to the U.S. -- from its current 1.8 million.
I wrote about this last year; one wonders how the Journal gets away with calling this an "exclusive" when the knowledge has been available for almost a year.